Potentially big news: “Proposed new [EPA] emissions standards would limit carbon dioxide produced by new power plants, which would probably prohibit construction of any coal-fired facilities“
EPA power plant CO2 standards
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Pushing tar sands exports
Greenpeace has released a new report on how Canada’s government has been trying to support oil sands exports to the United States and Europe: Dirty Diplomacy: The Canadian Government’s Global Push to Sell the Tar Sands.
Arguably, Canada’s government should not be out there advocating for such a destructive industry. If the European Union and the United States do not want to buy the fuel from the oil sands, that is probably a good thing for the world.
James Hansen’s climate change TED talk
NASA scientist James Hansen has a TED talk in which he addresses climate change:
He talks about his motivation for speaking out, as well as for engaging in civil disobedience to try to encourage the emergence of stronger climate policies.
Growing pollution from the oil sands
Clare Demerse of the Pembina Institute does a good job of explaining one major reason why the oil sands are of special concern, when it comes to the various sources of greenhouse gas pollution in Canada:
No one could make the case about why the oilsands matter better than Environment Canada just did. In late July, the department published a document called Canada’s Emissions Trends, which provides an up-to-date projection of greenhouse gas pollution under a “business as usual” scenario — in other words, our emissions future unless governments take stronger actions than they have to date.
This document provides really important data, so we were very glad to see it made public. But the picture it paints of where oilsands emissions are heading is — to put it mildly — not pretty.
Over the last two decades, greenhouse gas emissions from the oilsands have grown by over 150 per cent. From 2005 to 2020, Environment Canada’s number show, they’re going to keep right on growing, tripling from 30 million tonnes in 2005 to 92 million tonnes in 2020. That represents 12 per cent of Canada’s projected national emissions in 2020, more than the total for any province except Alberta and Ontario.
That makes the oilsands sector very unique. In other parts of Canada’s economy, emissions are expected to grow much more slowly, or even to drop as technologies improve or federal or provincial emission reduction policies take effect. Most notably, electricity emissions are expected to fall by 31 million tonnes in Canada by 2020 in the absence of new government policies — while oilsands expansion is forecast to increase emissions by twice that much over the same period. (It’s worth noting that the federal government has already outlined a regulatory approach to coal-fired electricity detailed enough that it’s been included in Environment Canada’s “business as usual” projections, while the projections don’t include an equivalent federal policy approach for the oilsands.)
While other sectors of the Canadian economy can learn how to operate in ways that damage the climate much less, output from the oil sands will always significantly raise global pollution levels.
The world as a whole needs to go on a carbon diet, and Canada along with it. Plans to have output from the oil sands keep growing without end are at odds with that necessary aim.
Warnings ignored
I wonder if one day words like these will be written about climate change:
In his preface to the 1921 edition of The War in the Air, [H.G.] Wells wrote of World War I (still able to call it, then, the Great War): “The great catastrophe marched upon us in daylight. But everybody thought that somebody else would stop it before it really arrived. Behind that great catastrophe march others today.” In the preface to the 1941 edition, he could only add: “Again I ask the reader to note the warnings I gave in that year, twenty years ago. Is there anything to add to the preface now? Nothing except my epitaph. That, when the time comes, will manifestly have to be: ‘I told you so. You damned fools.’ (The italics are mine.)”
Gibson, William. Distrust that Particular Flavor. p.207 (harcover)
Canada does not have the right to develop the oil sands
The entire debate about oil sands development in Canada seems to centre around the question: “Is this good for us?” It includes aspects like the water and air pollution produced by the oil sands, the economic impact of oil sands development, the significance of the oil sands to federal-provincial relations, and similar such matters.
While that question is obviously a valid one worth discussing, it is also important to realize that it isn’t the end of the debate. Two more important questions are: “Are the oil sands good for the world as a whole?” and: “Does Canada have the right to keep developing the oil sands?”
I think the answer to both of these questions is clearly ‘no’. There is every indication that climate change is extremely dangerous. There is also every indication that once an industry develops in Canada, politicians will never have the guts to shut it down, no matter how obviously harmful it has become. Finally, there is the enormous size of the carbon reserve in the oil sands.
Canada is now deciding whether to spend additional billions developing the capability to add an enormous amount of extra carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. This is at a time when the atmosphere already contains a dangerous amount of the gas – so much so that entire low-lying nations are being threatened with destruction because of sea level rise. Canada does not have the right to force climate change on the rest of the world; by extension, Canada does not have the right to develop the oil sands, and must work to substantially diminish the quantity of greenhouse gas pollution it generates.
The suffering of coal miners
One of the reasons why humanity ought to move beyond coal as a source of energy is because coal mining is such a dangerous and unpleasant undertaking. Large numbers of people die every year from accidents and from lung disease, and many more experience serious but non-fatal health consequences.
This photo series from Boston.com does an excellent job of showing what coal mining does on a human scale.
Temperature Data: 1880-2011
This video from NASA shows temperature data from 1880 to 2011:
NASA has determined that 2011 was the 9th hottest year on record, and that 9 out of the 10 hottest years have happened since 2000.
This post provides more information.
Declining American coal use
This is encouraging: U.S. CO2 emissions to stay below 2005 levels as coal use shrinks
Climate and the 2011 State of the Union
Yesterday’s State of the Union address was disappointing.
Obama went on and on about the potential of shale gas – ignoring the way in which burning it contributes to cumulative emissions and therefore to climate change. He only mentioned ‘climate change’ to say that he doesn’t think Congress will do anything about it.
Obama is forgetting that if the world does experience dangerous, abrupt, or runaway climate change, he will be remembered as a failure, along with the other leaders from this era. They will be remembered as the people who totally failed to understand the biggest problem of the era, and who did nothing useful about it.